SJEMO Predicts ‘Moderate’ Spring Freshet Levels

Saint John emergency officials are gearing up for what they expect will be “moderate” flooding during this year’s spring freshet.

Mike Carr, manager of Saint John’s Emergency Management Organization (SJEMO), gave an update on the situation at Monday night’s council meeting.

Carr said based on the current data, they are predicting water levels to peak at 5.1 metres this year. Water levels in the Saint John-Quispamsis area reached between 5.56 and 5.76 metres the past two years.

The deputy fire chief said several factors influence water levels, including the remaining snow in northern New Brunswick and how much water it contains.

“Much of the upper river valley has higher-than-average snow levels and upwards of 2.5 feet remaining. When using snow-water equivalent data for the Saint John River basin, we are 3.7 per cent above average and 8.6 per cent less than last year,” said Carr.

JUST IN: Deputy fire chief Mike Carr says Saint John EMO is predicting a "moderate" flood level of 5.1 metres during the 2020 spring freshet.

Carr says 4.2 metres is considered flood level, 4.7 metres triggers partial activation by SJEMO, and 5.2 metres triggers full activation.

— Brad Perry (@BradMPerry) April 6, 2020

Carr said SJEMO moves to partial activation when water levels reach 4.7 metres, providing help to citizens on a case-by-case basis. It moves to full activation emergency response at 5.2 metres, which is when sandbag distribution centres are set up.

“My estimate is we will hover below the emergency response trigger point of 5.2 [metres], which, according to our policy, would not trigger sandbag distribution centres,” he said.

“However, our GIS department has mapped a 5.1-metre flood level, which has demonstrated many of the same areas will be impacted as previous years, but to a much lesser extent.”

Carr emphasized sandbags are meant to protect property, not people, which is their main concern during flooding.

No matter the water levels, Carr said Saint John EMO will be “taxed” as it manages two events — the spring freshet and the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I can assure you that regardless of this pandemic, Saint John EMO and NBEMO have been preparing for the spring freshet since December of 2019 and we are moving forward with adjusting the emergency services we deliver to adhere to social distancing,” he said.