Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau was in Moncton during the campaigning period. His party is set to form a minority government. (Image: Inda Intiar/Huddle)
The head of the Chambers of Commerce in New Brunswick are seeing a bumpy path ahead as Canadians voted for a minority Liberal government. And there was no better indication than Premier Blaine Higgs’ announcement that he is softening his stance against the federal carbon tax.
Higgs said in a scrum with reporters Tuesday that he plans to put together a plan for consumer pricing on carbon that could replace the federal backstop that fits with Trudeau’s climate plan.
“I mean, I can’t ignore the obvious here. The country has spoken,” he said. “People voted for it so we have to find a way in New Brunswick to make it work.”
The Liberals won the most seats but the Conservatives won more of the popular vote (34.4 per cent), the Green party made a historic gain with a win in Fredericton and Bloc Quebecois also strengthened significantly with 32 seats. The NDP lost some seats but still made its presence known with leader Jagmeet Singh’s popularity rising during the campaign.
“It is really quite a patchwork quilt of colours across the country. I think the next few years are going to be increasingly difficult to govern for the Liberals and whomever they decide to support them,” said John Wishart, CEO of the Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce. “I look back to 2015 and the buzzword from the Trudeau government was ‘sunny ways.’ I would suggest today it’s ‘stormy seas’ going forward.”
“Whether it’s a good thing, or not, [a minority government] certainly ensures that there’s some collaboration and that there’s as much listening as there is speaking. That’s not necessarily a bad thing,” said Krista Ross, the CEO of Fredericton Chamber of Commerce.
In New Brunswick, the Liberals still had the most seats and kept the ones in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe and Saint John-Rothesay. But the Conservatives also made gains, taking 30 per cent of the seats, and Fredericton voted in Jenica Atwin, the first Green MP outside of British Columbia.
“There is absolutely a divide, not only in New Brunswick but across the country as well,” said Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce CEO David Duplisea. “With a minority government, it’s going to be challenging, there are many parties in the mix…It would be interesting to see what kinds of friendships and alliances come out of this.”
The results are showing a more polarized country, Wishart said, noting that those on the left of the political spectrum were split on issues like national pharmacare and climate change, while those on the right of the spectrum focused on things like getting spending under control and building pipelines.
“It’s getting increasingly more difficult to bring those two sides together, so it’s really going to be an act of statesmanship by Trudeau and his team to be able to do that over the next however many years the government lasts,” Wishart said.
Higgs said in the scrum that the resurgence of Bloc Quebecois, a Conservative wave in the west, and a gain for the Greens in some pockets show that divide.
“It’s concerning that we have very diverse opinions with what would seem [to be] little room of reconciliation to pull the country back again. That’s an outcome that I’m very concerned about,” he said.
Duplisea says the resurgence of Bloc Quebecois, which took 32 of 78 seats in Quebec, and Green Party’s gain in the popular vote (17 per cent in New Brunswick), means a different national conversation when it comes to energy projects and climate policies.
“It certainly shows that the electorate in the country is paying attention to climate change. And given the break up of the votes across the country, I think you’re going to see a lot more attention perhaps on climate change and maybe even some more consensus on it,” said Duplisea.
Wishart agrees, saying climate change was likely among the top three issues this election.
For New Brunswick businesses, a climate policy from the Trudeau government that have been a heated issue was the carbon tax.
All three chambers of commerce have been advocating for a made-in-New Brunswick carbon tax solution to replace the federal backstop that Trudeau’s government imposed after rejecting New Brunswick’s original carbon plan. The province submitted a revised plan in June, but is still waiting to hear if it will be accepted.
“One of the things the chamber has always said is that environment and business and economy are not mutually exclusive…We need to find a way for those to work together and looking at a carbon plan that works economically as well as environmentally is what we need to do,” said Ross.
Higgs has now said he plans to introduce a carbon pricing plan in response to the number of seats won by parties that favour an aggressive approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
He also plans to speak to his counterparts in Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan with whom New Brunswick launched a legal challenge against the federal carbon tax.
“I haven’t had a chance to talk to my colleagues that have been part of the court challenge. We’ll see where that goes,” he said. “We do need to have that discussion. Where do we go next? Because in many ways, Canadians have spoken on this issue.”
Wishart agrees with Higgs’ observation that most voters agree with carbon pricing. But he said it’s “crucial” that the carbon pricing plan the provincial government comes up with is fair to businesses and consumers, “and puts us on a level playing field with our Maritime neighbours.”
Meanwhile, Yves-François Blanchet, the leader of Bloc Quebecois, has said he will block any pipeline projects going through Quebec. The Conservative party had proposed an east-west energy corridor, and in New Brunswick, the discussion about Energy East still came up despite failed attempts to revive the pipeline project in recent years.
“It’s extremely difficult for me to say this, but with Trudeau’s position and the Bloc’s position, I see that our stranded asset position will continue,” said Higgs.
“Certainly the area that I’m going to focus on that is not impacted by last night in some ways would be really trying to drive a change in the softwood lumber tariff because I remain very concerned particularly about our small producers,” he added.
Wishart believes the chance of a pipeline “is pretty much dead” with the Bloc strengthened in Quebec and stronger headwinds against fossil fuels.
“That’s unfortunate for New Brunswick because Energy East would have brought immense benefits, but perhaps we shouldn’t use our energy chasing pipe dreams – pun intended,” he said.
Duplisea sees the conversation switching away from fossil fuel-related projects to alternative sources. If there’s a discussion about an energy corridor, then the chamber sees Saint John positioned as a hub for alternative energy innovation, he said.
“If you look at the New Brunswick southwest region, we really are becoming a transitional energy hub point with a lot of the focus from Saint John Energy, the relationship with the wind farm as well as small scale nuclear,” he said.
“Those are transitional energy sources that are going to take us to be less dependent on carbon fuels…We’re not just a petroleum products city, we’re doing a lot of work on the narrative and becoming a hub for alternative energy. So that’s where I think the dialogue’s gonna shift and that’s where we’re going to focus.”
Overall, all three heads of the chambers say they will continue to push for a reduction in the national debt and deficit, and a review of the tax system, which Wishart said could be difficult to do in a minority government situation.
Duplisea said a focus on climate change policies is needed, “but not at the expense of businesses.”
Ross hopes Atwin will help push for less red tape for business, and higher numbers of immigrants to fill the gaps in labour force and create more businesses in the province and region.
All three said they have good relationships with the elected MPs and look forward to working with them. Wayne Long in Saint John and Ginette Petitpas Taylor in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, who was also federal health minister, were re-elected, while Atwin defeated Liberal MP Matt DeCourcey.
A version of this story was published in Huddle, an online business news publication based in Saint John. Huddle is an Acadia Broadcasting content partner.
