Poli-Sci Prof Weighs In On Election Call

Was an election call the right move by the Progressive Conservative government?

Mario Levesque, associate professor of Canadian politics Mount Allison University, says last week’s proposed agreement for the opposition parties may have been a strategic one by Blaine Higgs.

“He may be thinking, how can I make it so that the Opposition parties take the blame for forcing me into calling an early election. That would be what he just went through right now, trying to get an accord for two years. He could blame the Liberals and the other opposition parties for not being willing to work with him,” Levesque says.

“What he is also probably thinking of right now, is he’s looking at the polling data which sees him very high in the polls, because of the government response to COVID-19. His party is also very well off financially because of fundraising. He has a lot of money in the bank right now.”

But having an election could go the other way for the Conservatives, Levesque says.

“New Brunswickers could perceive an election call for September as a negative thing, because of the pandemic and fears of a second wave. Some people will say that they just simply have too many things on their mind and that there’s a lot of concern from New Brunswickers,” he says.

Not calling an election would have meant a potential risk for Higgs, says Levesque.

“The challenge if he didn’t call an election, he would have to call three by-elections this fall. if he lost two of them, the house would have flipped over to a minority Liberal government if they got the greens to work with them,” Levesque says.

For some New Brunswickers, they may not have been surprised by today’s election call, and it just made sense.

“When you are in a minority government situation, you do get tired trying to make things work all of the time. It is very, very difficult. Most minority governments last about a year and a half to two years. Basically, we were at the two-year mark right now. To me, it’s natural that the Conservatives would be looking for more stability. There’s two ways to do that, either call an election to try and get a majority government or get an agreement with the other parties to avoid an election for the next one to two years,” Levesque says.